By Michael Martz

Rep. Abigail Spanberger, D-7th, is setting a punishing pace for potential opponents in the race for governor next year, as Virginia Democrats look beyond the impending president election and the battle for control of Congress in November to statewide races in 2025.

Spanberger, who decided not to run for a fourth term in the 7th Congressional District, has raised more than $7 million, with almost $5.4 million in the bank, against a field of candidates that has yet to approach the starting gate. She already backed down Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney, who withdrew from the governor’s race in April and now leads a four-way field in fundraising for the party nomination for lieutenant governor.

“It just looks like she is setting down quite the marker for the Republicans,” said Bob Holsworth, a veteran state political analyst in Richmond.

Republicans have yet to field any candidates, even though they potentially have two strong ones in Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears and Attorney General Jason Miyares, but neither has jumped into the race or signaled a plan to do so.

“The Republicans have to make up their minds soon about whether they’re going to be able to be financially competitive in 2025,” said Chris Saxman, a former Republican delegate and now executive director of Virginia FREE, a statewide business advocacy organization.

The four Democrats running for lieutenant governor — Stoney; Sen. Aaron Rouse, D-Virginia Beach; Sen. Ghazala Hashmi, D-Chesterfield; and Prince William County School Board Chairman Babur Lateef — all have raised six-figure campaign contributions through the end of June.

Stoney leads with almost $792,000, with $702,958 still in the bank. Rouse has raised $450,766, with $411,696 in hand. Lateef has raised $350,593, with $252,977 in hand. Hashmi has raised $197,484 and had $174,670 in the bank on June 30.

Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor is the only declared candidate for attorney general, although former Del. Jay Jones, D-Norfolk, has been picking up endorsements to seek the Democratic nomination.

“It’s clear that the Democrats are planning already for 2025,” said Steve Farnsworth, director of the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at the University of Mary Washington. “A lot of money is being dropped on candidates who aren’t on the ballot this year.

Farnsworth said the early spending on 2025 could backfire in November, but he added, “For now, Candidate Spanberger has raised the kind of money that might give potential opponents acid reflux.”

The risks include distracting from President Joe Biden’s increasingly challenging effort to win Virginia again, four years after beating President Donald Trump here by 10 percentage points. The stakes include reelection of Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., who faces an aggressive challenge by Republican Hung Cao, whom Trump endorsed and helped cruise to an easy victory over four primary opponents last month.

Control of Congress could depend on the outcome of competitive races in a handful of congressional districts, especially the 7th and 10th, both anchored in Northern Virginia, and the 2nd, in Hampton Roads.

“Virginia is a very good use of money” for both parties, Farnsworth said. “If you take Virginia for granted in 2024, you’re making a mistake.”

Kaine appears to hold a strong position. He’s raised more than $16 million and had $7.8 million still in the bank on June 30. Cao, a retired U.S. Navy captain who spoke at the Republican National Convention on Tuesday, has raised $3 million, with $409,507 in hand.

The senator also has the advantage in name recognition, having served as governor, lieutenant governor and mayor of Richmond before his first election to the Senate in 2012.

But Kaine also is tied closely to Biden, whose disastrous debate performance on June 27 had Democrats reeling even before the attempted assassination of Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday.

“The scenario for Cao really depends on continuing erosion among Democrats in support for Biden,” Farnsworth said. “The more divided the party, the better the odds that the Senate race becomes competitive.”

The pivotal race for control of the House is unfolding in Spanberger’s district, where first-time Democratic candidate Eugene Vindman faces Republican Derrick Anderson. Both are U.S. Army veterans in a district tied closely to the military and federal government.

Vindman has a big fundraising lead because of national recognition from the role that he and his twin brother, Alexander, played in the first impeachment of Trump. He raised almost $7.4 million through the end of June and entered July with about $2.3 million in the bank. Anderson, who finished a strong second in the Republican primary in the 7th two years ago, has raised $1.4 million and had $460,801 in cash on June 30.

But the fundraising gap is likely to narrow, as national Republicans begin to pour money into Anderson’s campaign, which House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and other House GOP leaders endorsed. National Democrats recently added the 7th to a list of high-priority districts they hope to hold or flip from “red to blue.’

“Virginia 7 is a national marquee race,” Farnsworth said. “So Vindman can expect Republicans to catch up with the fundraising pretty quickly.”

In the 10th, Democrat Suhas Subramanyam has the early financial advantage over Republican Mike Clancy in a Democratic-leaning district that lies predominantly in Loudoun County, where both live. Subramanyam had raised $1.3 million and still had $156,425 in the bank after a wild primary featuring 12 candidates. Clancy, a businessman and talk show personality, raised $422,221, but he had just $28,300 on June 30 after a convincing victory in a five-way primary.

“The 7th is a tossup,” Saxman said. “The 10th is a bit of a reach for Republicans.”

Democrats have their only chance of picking up a Republican seat in the 2nd, where Rep. Jen Kiggans, R-2nd, holds the advantage in fundraising and name recognition over Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal in a swing district deeply connected to the U.S. military. Both are U.S. Navy veterans, but Kiggans’ biggest advantage is the district lines that the Virginia Supreme Court adopted in late 2021, tipping the competitive balance to Republicans. As a result, she unseated Rep. Elaine Luria, D-2nd, in the only competitive race that Republicans won in Virginia in the 2022 midterm elections.

“Now Kiggans is an incumbent, so she’s in a stronger position than she was two years ago,” Farnsworth said.

Congressional races in two Richmond-area districts are not as competitive.

Rep. Rob Wittman, R-1st, is a 17-year incumbent with a huge fundraising advantage over first-time Democratic candidate Leslie Mehta in the 1st District, which includes parts of Chesterfield, Henrico and Hanover counties. Wittman had raised $2.2 million through June 30, when he had $1.8 million in the bank. Mehta, who defeated former Democratic nominee Herb Jones in the party primary, had raised $295,506 and had $63,850 in hand.

In the 5th, which includes part of Hanover and outlying counties such as Powhatan and Goochland, the real battle was the Republican primary, which newly elected Sen. John McGuire, R-Goochland, won by 374 votes over Rep. Bob Good, R-5th, who is seeking a recount. McGuire raised $1.4 million and had $130,322 left on June 30. His Democratic opponent, Gloria Tinsley Witt, raised $58,128 and had $36,262 in hand on June 30.

With all of that at stake, next year’s election cycle already has begun, at least for Virginia Democrats.

“In the old days, Virginia had one election at a time,” Farnsworth said. “Now they’re backed up like planes over Dulles.”