By Jennifer Rubin

Over the past few decades, after a presidential election, Virginia usually has elected a governor from the party opposing the one that gained the White House. If that holds next fall, Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger will become the state’s first woman governor.

Instead of running for reelection in Virginia’s 7th Congressional District, Spanberger decided to run for governor. So far, she’s the only Democrat running, a sign of her political strength and fundraising ability. With three terms in Congress, a national security background (as a CIA case officer), and a reputation for pragmatism and moderation, she seems well-suited for Virginia.

I spoke with her on Capitol Hill this past week. In the six years since I met Spanberger during her first run for Congress, she has honed her skill set to succeed in partisan politics. She peppers her comments with anecdotes and detailed data about the state. Her canny ability to get things done with unlikely allies might hold her in good stead with Virginia’s famously moderate electorate. “I had bills signed into law by President Trump and bills signed into law by President Joe Biden,” she tells me.

In her constant travels around the state, she hears a familiar story. “If I can sort of boil it down, it’s the overall concerns about the cost of living a daily life,” she says. That might be prices at the grocery store or the pharmacy counter or the cost of buying a house. Regarding the latter, she observes, “Like so many places across the country, we’ve got an issue with overall housing supply. … Virginia needs to kick it into gear.”

She knows that voters are frustrated with politics, tired of negativity and distrustful of politicians promising to fix their problems. Persistently sunny and in solution mode (a mindset perhaps attributable to her national security background), she tells me that although a general sense of unease might continue, “In times of that unease, discomfort and challenge, there’s a lot of opportunity” for fixing problems.

The current political climate poses an electoral challenge for Spanberger: She had expected to be running for governor with a Democratic president in place, promising to build on the party’s record of achievement. Instead, she will need to present herself as a check against Donald Trump — without coming across as another negative name-caller. Her best bet might be to present herself as someone to step into the breach — without drama, chaos or contentiousness — when the federal government’s dysfunction threatens to spill over the Potomac.

Spanberger certainly can point to her record working across the aisle, even during hyper-partisan times. Often rated as among the most bipartisan representatives, she recalls her work for rural hospitals, in coordination with Republican Rep. David B. McKinley of West Virginia — “a lovely, lovely representative,” Spanberger says of the former congressman. They teamed up to hold drug prices down for hospitals and protect rural hospitals. “I have no idea” what McKinley did on other issues, she says, “but I knew based on numbers that he had real challenges not so dissimilar from southwest Virginia in his state of West Virginia.”

Likewise, she and Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-South Dakota) worked on Agriculture Department issues to help their states’ meat and meat processing businesses, and Spanberger worked with Rep. David G. Valadao (R-California) on dairy farms’ use of renewable energy.

In Virginia, she says, “I will be working with Republicans and Democrats, but I’ll also be working with coastal Virginians or rural community Virginians or Virginians with the background in education. Sometimes those are Democrats and sometimes those are Republicans.” She continues, “Of course, I want a Democratic majority in the House of Delegates in the state Senate, but that’s not to the exclusion of having people who want to productively and effectively work on behalf of their constituents.”

Spanberger says she’s sure “there will be a critical mass of legislators that will recognize, ‘Okay, I can either do nothing for four years or I can work with this governor.’ … I have to believe that they got into this public service for a reason.”

Virginia might be hit hard if Trump implements across-the-board tariffs and dismembers chunks of government. On tariffs, she recalls that Trump’s original tariffs against China were “crushing” for her state’s agriculture. Whether about farming or high-tech industries, Virginia’s loss of global markets in a trade war could be disastrous. If elected, she will need to marshal help from other governors and her former Hill colleagues to block job-killing tariffs.

Trump’s scheme to slash government could devastate Virginia, home to over 155,000 active duty military and reservists, and about 144,000 civilian government employees (plus tens of thousands of contractors). “This incoming presidency loves to sort of hit on federal workers, but federal workers are the people who process your Social Security claim when your spouse dies,” Spanberger tells me. “It’s the nurse who cares for your aging parent as they are going through health trial after health trial at the VA.”

She also notes that “the federal workforce is the one that does research to create not just cures but vaccinations. They are the people who stop terrorist attacks; they’re the people who keep us safe at the airports.” Blindly slashing government means hurting Americans who rely on these workers. “This attack on the federal workforce is also an attack on the very institutions that serve the American people,” Spanberger says, “and on Virginia’s population.”

If she can persuade voters sick of politics to listen to her common-sense appeal, Spanberger stands a good chance to win. When Trump comes after many Virginians’ jobs and critical services, her calm under fire might be essential in staving off the onslaught.